I wanted to write a short preamble because I think about this topic a lot, and this is more than just a confirmation bias retweet. Dan Olson<\/a>\u2019s video (below) is two hours long and covers the topic in detail.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Skip to the video<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n At the Formula 1 season finale at the Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, emblazoned across the giant footbridge, was an ad for Crypto.com. Not having heard of it, I took a look at the website where I was greeted by Matt Damon talking to camera, and the message: \u201cFortune favours the brave\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sponsoring the Grand Prix and getting Matt Damon is expensive advertising. Crypto wants fresh blood! Those already in, and those running the exchanges are set to make a lot of money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I don\u2019t have a side in the crypto culture war. Except: I currently don\u2019t have any investment in it*. Time will tell whether that\u2019s a mistake. I\u2019m fairly sure the only people who are vocally pro-crypto are those already invested. And this obviously undermines the usefulness of their opinions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n (*Full disclosure: I previously owned a modest amount of Bitcoin and I was lucky enough to sell it at a profit. I was curious about how it works. I made about \u00a3400 on a couple of grand investment.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n I tend to be naturally sceptical about things until I\u2019m convinced otherwise. Despite having worked in tech for 24 years (I launched my first website for a client in 1998) I haven\u2019t been convinced by the benefits of crypto apart from the obvious one: That evidently many people have successfully bought coins or tokens low and either sold them high, or still hold them at a higher value than when they bought them. So yes there is of course money to be made.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But because every transaction is both a buy and a sell<\/em> the opposite is also true: An equal amount of money has also either been lost or is being held at a lower value than when those coins or tokens were bought. A lot of people are currently in Bitcoin negative equity (1 BTC = $35,000 today, down from $67,500 on 8 November).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Only if its value kept going up forever could everyone win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Depending on who you listen to Bitcoin is either going to replace the US Dollar, or it will go to zero. It\u2019s hard to get any objectivity on it, and of course you can\u2019t predict the future. Value is a complicated subject and largely a matter of consensus or sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I\u2019m conscious that the Twitter algorithm has me in a crypto-skeptic bubble but many of the arguments presented in it are well reasoned<\/a>. In an attempt to balance things out I follow and have read or listened to a number of crypto advocates: Changpeng, Vitalik, Michael Saylor, Jack Dorsey, Chris Dixon and Anthony Pompliano as well as a couple of NFT guys (although I had to mute one, he was too tedious). Bored apes are everywhere and now we have hexagonal profile pictures too. I enjoyed Lex Fridman\u2019s interview with Pomp<\/a>. But obviously he is inherently very biased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Oh and \u2013 guys \u2013 the whole laser eyes<\/a> thing is not exactly helping it not<\/em> feel like a cult.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The technology is certainly interesting<\/em> but I\u2019m not convinced that it is necessary<\/em> or beneficial to society. Yes, even taking into account the fiat inflation problem. If you\u2019re a card-carrying libertarian you probably don\u2019t give a shit about societal benefits so long as something can make you personally richer. In which case by all means do your thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Friends who are crypto investors will likely roll their eyes at this post (not another hater!) But I believe privately they\u2019re thinking \u201cshut up dude\u201d because I\u2019m talking down their investment. I understand that \u2013 I have investments in tech stocks and I tend not to enjoy negative posts about those either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Anyway I did previously attempt a blog post about all of it<\/em> but there are too many aspects that each start to unfurl into complicated arguments that require well researched evidence and for which there will be counterexamples and frankly despite being in tech I\u2019m not an expert on any of it so I decided there is no point, other than that I like to occasionally blog to iron out unresolved things that have been going around in my head.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Then this morning I saw this video created by @FoldableHuman<\/a> and it really is very in-depth and starts from the beginning in 2008. I felt it was well worth sharing in more than just a tweet, hence this post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Enjoy \u2013 or be pissed off by it \u2013 as per your conditioning! <\/p>\n\n\n\nPreamble<\/h2>\n\n\n\n